Week 2 · Sunday 16:05

JAXJAX at DENDEN

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass

JAX moneyline+124
DEN moneyline-148
SpreadDEN -2.5
Total45.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceJAX 73%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total45.5points, both teams
Leo marginJAX by 7.9expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB1 927.911 249
Bo Nix DEN QB1 5.532.311 184

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB1 4.811.70.91 56
Bhayshul Tuten JAX RB1 4.410.21.21 55
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB2 47.71.21 39
RJ Harvey DEN RB2 4.75.80.91 30

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Parker Washington JAX WR1 11.16.111 67
Jakobi Meyers JAX WR3 144.411 60
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR2 10.84.611 49
Pat Bryant DEN WR1 7.14.811 34
Courtland Sutton DEN WR2 4.86.111 30
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR3 4.54.611 22
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

JAX This season DEN
70 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 42
65 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 40
67 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 63
66 Overall 52
QB 52 · OFF 55 · DEF 62 Last season QB 52 · OFF 52 · DEF 68

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

JAX Per game, this season DEN
0.00Interceptions thrown1.00
1.00Interceptions caught1.00
0.00Fumbles lost1.00
2.00Fumbles forced0.00
3.00Takeaways1.00
0.00Giveaways2.00
+3Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

JAX Offense DEN
+0.211EPA per dropback-0.038
+3.0Completion % over expected-2.9
1.9%Interception rate2.2%
6.1%Sack rate taken5.4%
-0.017Rush EPA per carry-0.043
6.3%Explosive play rate4.2%
JAX Defense DEN
-0.083EPA allowed per play-0.046
5.37Yards allowed per play5.09
4.4%Sack rate5.7%
2.0%Interception rate forced1.1%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is JAX, right is DEN.

JAX This season DEN
1Games1
245Pass yards/g131
126Rush yards/g61
4Passing TD1
0Interceptions thrown1
205Pass yards allowed/g184
87Rush yards allowed/g220
1Interceptions forced1
JAX Last season DEN
235.2Pass yards/g228.6
117.2Rush yards/g114.1
32Passing TD29
14Interceptions thrown13
233.7Pass yards allowed/g209.2
85.2Rush yards allowed/g98.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

JAX 2026

Quarterback Leo QB70

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence118/23 78.3%245245 4 / 010.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bhayshul Tuten115 664.40
Chris Rodriguez Jr.16 233.80

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR11 5/683.3%83 831
Brian Thomas Jr. WR21 3/3100%40 400
Brenton Strange TE1 2/366.7%23 231
DEN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB42

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix117/28 60.7%131131 1 / 14.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
J.K. Dobbins18 364.50
RJ Harvey13 1860

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Pat Bryant WR11 4/666.7%42 420
Courtland Sutton WR21 2/540%11 110
Evan Engram TE1 4/580%43 431

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

JAX 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Trevor Lawrence18359/590 60.8%4214234.1 32 / 147.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Travis Etienne18270 11744.37
Bhayshul Tuten1687 3584.15

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Parker Washington WR117 65/10760.7%954 56.16
Brian Thomas Jr. WR215 50/9353.8%728 48.53
Brenton Strange TE13 48/6573.8%549 42.23
DEN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bo Nix18414/658 62.9%4210233.9 28 / 126.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
RJ Harvey19165 5973.67
J.K. Dobbins10153 77254

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Courtland Sutton WR119 81/13858.7%1087 57.28
Troy Franklin WR217 65/10462.5%709 41.76
Evan Engram TE18 53/8264.6%487 27.11

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

JAX 2026
  1. Jakobi Meyers WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Parker Washington WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  3. Brenton Strange TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
DEN 2026
  1. Evan Engram TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

JAX 13 – 20 DEN

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerJAX 73%—DEN wonWRONG
Total points45.545.533no side · within 1.5 pts
MarginJAX by 7.9DEN −2.5DEN by 7JAX +2.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bo Nix DEN 221.5184 UNDER 288 104 More efficient (9.3 vs 5.5 yds/att) WRONG
Trevor Lawrence JAX 224.5249 OVER 189 60 Less efficient (6.5 vs 9 yds/att) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX 24.539 OVER 13 26 Less efficient (2.2 vs 4 yds/carry) WRONG
J.K. Dobbins DEN 58.556 no side 36 20 Less efficient (3.6 vs 4.8 yds/carry) NO LEAN
Bhayshul Tuten JAX 48.555 OVER 65 10 More carries (13 vs 10.2 expected) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jaylen Waddle DEN 54.522 UNDER 138 116 More efficient (13.8 vs 4.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Pat Bryant DEN 32.534 no side 0 34 Fewer targets (1 vs 4.8 expected) NO LEAN
Jakobi Meyers JAX 37.560 OVER 28 32 Fewer targets (1 vs 4.4 expected) WRONG
Parker Washington JAX 60.567 OVER 98 31 More targets (12 vs 6.1 expected) RIGHT
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 34.549 OVER 40 9 Less efficient (5 vs 10.8 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Courtland Sutton DEN 39.530 UNDER 25 5 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.