Week 2 · Sunday 20:20

INDIND at KCKC

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

IND moneyline+215
KC moneyline-265
SpreadKC -6
Total46.5

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceKC 76%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total48.4points, both teams
Leo marginKC by 9.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Patrick Mahomes KC QB1 731.41.11 247
Daniel Jones IND QB1 6.830.30.91 196

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Kenneth Walker III KC RB1 6.118.71.11 132
Jonathan Taylor IND RB1 5190.91 89
Emmett Johnson KC RB2 381.11 31

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Alec Pierce IND WR2 11.45.80.91 62
Rashee Rice KC WR2 8.45.91.11 55
Keenan Allen IND WR1 5.86.60.91 36
Josh Downs IND WR3 7.94.80.91 36
Xavier Worthy KC WR1 55.61.11 32
Tyquan Thornton KC WR3 5.221.11 13
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

IND This season KC
47 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 44
54 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 55
40 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 62
47 Overall 58
QB 54 · OFF 59 · DEF 49 Last season QB 48 · OFF 54 · DEF 51

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

IND Per game, this season KC
1.00Interceptions thrown1.00
0.00Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.00Takeaways2.00
2.00Giveaways1.00
-1Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

IND Offense KC
+0.008EPA per dropback+0.016
-0.5Completion % over expected-3.2
2.7%Interception rate2.4%
5.2%Sack rate taken7.3%
+0.086Rush EPA per carry+0.061
5.4%Explosive play rate5.3%
IND Defense KC
+0.059EPA allowed per play-0.089
6.09Yards allowed per play5.08
3.4%Sack rate3.9%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is IND, right is KC.

IND This season KC
1Games1
166Pass yards/g184
102Rush yards/g220
1Passing TD2
1Interceptions thrown1
324Pass yards allowed/g131
202Rush yards allowed/g61
0Interceptions forced1
IND Last season KC
240.3Pass yards/g232.2
118.1Rush yards/g106.6
25Passing TD23
14Interceptions thrown12
262.5Pass yards allowed/g205.1
101.9Rush yards allowed/g105.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

IND 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones119/31 61.3%166166 1 / 15.4

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor119 985.22

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Keenan Allen WR11 6/6100%32 320
Alec Pierce WR21 4/666.7%61 610
Tyler Warren TE1 3/560%13 131
KC 2026

Quarterback Leo QB44

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes115/27 55.6%184184 2 / 16.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kenneth Walker III123 1737.51
Emmett Johnson18 2430

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Xavier Worthy WR11 3/650%18 180
Rashee Rice WR21 2/2100%19 191
Travis Kelce TE1 3/560%71 710

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

IND 2025

Quarterback Leo QB54

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Daniel Jones13261/384 68%3101238.5 19 / 88.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Jonathan Taylor17323 15854.918
DJ Giddens526 963.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Michael Pittman WR117 80/11172.1%784 46.17
Josh Downs WR216 58/8865.9%566 35.44
Tyler Warren TE17 76/11267.9%817 48.14
KC 2025

Quarterback Leo QB48

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Patrick Mahomes14315/502 62.7%3587256.2 22 / 117.1

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Kareem Hunt17163 6113.78
Isiah Pacheco13118 4623.91

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Rashee Rice WR18 53/7867.9%571 71.45
Marquise Brown WR216 49/7466.2%587 36.75
Travis Kelce TE17 76/10870.4%851 50.15

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

IND 2026
  1. Jonathan Taylor RB 2 2 rush · 0 rec
  2. Tyler Warren TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
KC 2026
  1. Kenneth Walker III RB 2 1 rush · 1 rec
  2. Patrick Mahomes QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
  3. Rashee Rice WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

IND 30 – 33 KC (OT)

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerKC 76%—KC wonRIGHT
Total points48.446.563OVER · RIGHT
MarginKC by 9.1KC −6KC by 3KC −6 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Patrick Mahomes KC 221.5247 OVER 382 135 More attempts (47 vs 31.4 expected) RIGHT
Daniel Jones IND 216.5196 UNDER 210 14 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Emmett Johnson KC 17.531 OVER 15 16 Fewer carries (2 vs 8 expected) WRONG
Kenneth Walker III KC 83.5132 OVER 117 15 More carries (24 vs 18.7 expected) RIGHT
Jonathan Taylor IND 79.589 OVER 92 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tyquan Thornton KC 16.513 UNDER 86 73 More efficient (21.5 vs 5.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Alec Pierce IND 45.562 OVER 11 51 Fewer targets (1 vs 5.8 expected) WRONG
Josh Downs IND 42.536 UNDER 72 36 More targets (9 vs 4.8 expected) WRONG
Keenan Allen IND 29.536 OVER 5 31 Less efficient (1 vs 5.8 yds/tgt) WRONG
Rashee Rice KC 48.555 OVER 83 28 More efficient (13.8 vs 8.4 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Xavier Worthy KC 39.532 UNDER 25 7 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.