Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

GBGB at NYJNYJ

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

GB moneyline-185
NYJ moneyline+154
SpreadGB -3.5
Total44.5

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceGB 51%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total47.2points, both teams
Leo marginGB by 0.2expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Jordan Love GB QB1 8.436.20.91 290
Geno Smith NYJ QB1 7.826.90.91 206

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Breece Hall NYJ RB1 4.518.611 85
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB1 2.8130.91 37
Braelon Allen NYJ RB2 4.37.311 34
Chris Brooks GB RB2 3.24.30.91 16

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Christian Watson GB WR2 14.96.80.91 95
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR1 8.77.70.91 64
Matthew Golden GB WR1 7.57.60.91 54
Adonai Mitchell NYJ WR2 12.83.80.91 47
Jayden Reed GB WR3 5.95.90.91 34
Isaiah Williams NYJ WR3 51.70.91 9
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

GB This season NYJ
64 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 38
59 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 40
48 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 36
54 Overall 38
QB 72 · OFF 66 · DEF 45 Last season QB 28 · OFF 31 · DEF 29

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

GB Per game, this season NYJ
1.00Interceptions thrown0.00
1.00Interceptions caught0.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
0.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.00Takeaways1.00
2.00Giveaways0.00
-1Net turnover margin+1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

GB Offense NYJ
+0.182EPA per dropback-0.064
+2.6Completion % over expected-0.8
1.5%Interception rate2.1%
6.0%Sack rate taken8.7%
-0.114Rush EPA per carry-0.066
7.3%Explosive play rate4.4%
GB Defense NYJ
+0.028EPA allowed per play+0.084
5.04Yards allowed per play5.46
3.6%Sack rate3.2%
1.0%Interception rate forced0.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is GB, right is NYJ.

GB This season NYJ
1Games1
387Pass yards/g215
66Rush yards/g152
2Passing TD0
1Interceptions thrown0
151Pass yards allowed/g140
107Rush yards allowed/g68
1Interceptions forced0
GB Last season NYJ
231.6Pass yards/g163.8
118.7Rush yards/g123.3
30Passing TD15
7Interceptions thrown13
215.4Pass yards allowed/g226.4
116.3Rush yards allowed/g139.5

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

GB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB64

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love121/42 50%387387 2 / 19.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
MarShawn Lloyd113 372.80
Chris Brooks17 294.10

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Matthew Golden WR11 6/1250%95 950
Christian Watson WR21 6/875%147 1472
Tucker Kraft TE1 3/650%65 650
NYJ 2026

Quarterback Leo QB38

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Geno Smith119/24 79.2%215215 0 / 09

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall122 1024.61
Braelon Allen110 4040

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR11 6/785.7%79 790
Adonai Mitchell WR21 3/3100%60 600
Mason Taylor TE1 2/366.7%-2 -20

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

GB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB72

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Jordan Love16315/485 64.9%3704231.5 27 / 67.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Josh Jacobs16253 9843.913
Emanuel Wilson18126 49943

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Romeo Doubs WR117 63/9665.6%848 49.97
Christian Watson WR211 38/6261.3%647 58.87
Tucker Kraft TE8 32/4472.7%489 61.16
NYJ 2025

Quarterback Leo QB28

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Justin Fields9128/204 62.7%1259139.9 7 / 16.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Breece Hall16243 10654.44
Isaiah Davis1643 2365.51

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Garrett Wilson WR17 36/5961%395 56.44
Adonai Mitchell WR28 24/5841.4%301 37.62
Mason Taylor TE13 44/6567.7%369 28.41

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

GB 2026
  1. Christian Watson WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec
NYJ 2026
  1. Breece Hall RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
  2. Kenyon Sadiq TE 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Final result

GB 20 – 17 NYJ (OT)

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerGB 51%—GB wonRIGHT
Total points47.244.537OVER · WRONG
MarginGB by 0.2GB −3.5GB by 3NYJ +3.5 · RIGHT

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Jordan Love GB 254.5290 OVER 145 145 Less efficient (5 vs 8.4 yds/att) WRONG
Geno Smith NYJ 207.5206 no side 247 41 More attempts (41 vs 26.9 expected) NO LEAN

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Breece Hall NYJ 63.585 OVER 29 56 Less efficient (1.8 vs 4.5 yds/carry) WRONG
Braelon Allen NYJ 24.534 OVER 7 27 Less efficient (1.4 vs 4.3 yds/carry) WRONG
MarShawn Lloyd GB 49.537 UNDER 20 17 Fewer carries (6 vs 13 expected) RIGHT
Chris Brooks GB 24.516 UNDER 11 5 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Christian Watson GB 61.595 OVER 41 54 Less efficient (3.7 vs 14.9 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jayden Reed GB 37.534 UNDER 4 30 Fewer targets (1 vs 5.9 expected) RIGHT
Isaiah Williams NYJ 11.59 UNDER 34 25 More targets (6 vs 1.7 expected) WRONG
Adonai Mitchell NYJ 33.547 OVER 63 16 More targets (12 vs 3.8 expected) RIGHT
Garrett Wilson NYJ 68.564 UNDER 57 7 On target RIGHT
Matthew Golden GB 49.554 OVER 58 4 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.