Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

CLECLE at TBTB

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

CLE moneyline+330
TB moneyline-425
SpreadTB -8.5
Total41.5

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceTB 73%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46.2points, both teams
Leo marginTB by 8.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Baker Mayfield TB QB1 7.33011 230
Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 9.32211 219

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bucky Irving TB RB1 4.512.711 61
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 3.114.211 47
Kenny Gainwell TB RB2 3.55.811 24
Raheim Sanders CLE RB2 2.13.911 11

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Emeka Egbuka TB WR1 9.26.711 64
Denzel Boston CLE WR3 14.8411 62
KC Concepcion CLE WR1 8.6511 45
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR2 8.64.811 43
Ted Hurst III TB WR3 12311 38
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR2 6.15.111 33
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CLE This season TB
23 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 45
27 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 43
53 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 47
40 Overall 45
QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64 Last season QB 46 · OFF 50 · DEF 47

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CLE Per game, this season TB
1.00Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught1.00
1.00Fumbles lost4.00
1.00Fumbles forced0.00
1.00Takeaways1.00
2.00Giveaways4.00
-1Net turnover margin-3

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CLE Offense TB
-0.257EPA per dropback-0.050
-2.4Completion % over expected+0.7
3.5%Interception rate1.6%
10.4%Sack rate taken7.6%
-0.035Rush EPA per carry-0.014
4.4%Explosive play rate5.6%
CLE Defense TB
-0.010EPA allowed per play+0.005
5.42Yards allowed per play5.95
4.5%Sack rate3.3%
0.9%Interception rate forced1.4%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CLE, right is TB.

CLE This season TB
1Games1
205Pass yards/g216
87Rush yards/g89
1Passing TD0
1Interceptions thrown0
245Pass yards allowed/g254
126Rush yards allowed/g106
0Interceptions forced1
CLE Last season TB
185.4Pass yards/g220.9
97Rush yards/g114.5
16Passing TD26
18Interceptions thrown11
189.4Pass yards allowed/g254.8
116.4Rush yards allowed/g99.1

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB23

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson116/22 72.7%205205 1 / 19.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins112 332.80
Raheim Sanders11 110

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
KC Concepcion WR11 4/580%43 430
Jerry Jeudy WR21 2/450%26 260
Harold Fannin Jr. TE1 2/366.7%21 210
TB 2026

Quarterback Leo QB45

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield123/28 82.1%216216 0 / 07.7

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving18 455.61
Kenny Gainwell15 1530

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR11 5/683.3%63 630
Chris Godwin Jr. WR21 4/4100%40 400
Cade Otton TE1 3/560%26 260

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76
TB 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Baker Mayfield17343/543 63.2%3693217.2 26 / 116.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bucky Irving10173 5883.41
Rachaad White17132 5724.34

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Emeka Egbuka WR117 63/12749.6%938 55.26
Mike Evans WR28 30/6248.4%368 463
Cade Otton TE15 59/8172.8%572 38.11

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

CLE 2026
  1. Denzel Boston WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec
TB 2026
  1. Baker Mayfield QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
  2. Bucky Irving RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec

Final result

CLE 23 – 19 TB

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerTB 73%—CLE wonWRONG
Total points46.241.542OVER · RIGHT
MarginTB by 8.1TB −8.5CLE by 4no side · within 1 pt

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Baker Mayfield TB 216.5230 OVER 182 48 Less efficient (5.4 vs 7.3 yds/att) WRONG
Deshaun Watson CLE 175.5219 OVER 238 19 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bucky Irving TB 65.561 UNDER 89 28 More carries (17 vs 12.7 expected) WRONG
Quinshon Judkins CLE 49.547 UNDER 21 26 Less efficient (1.8 vs 3.1 yds/carry) RIGHT
Kenny Gainwell TB 26.524 UNDER 10 14 Fewer carries (2 vs 5.8 expected) RIGHT
Raheim Sanders CLE 10.511 no side 4 7 On target NO LEAN

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Emeka Egbuka TB 54.564 OVER 16 48 Less efficient (3.2 vs 9.2 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jerry Jeudy CLE 27.533 OVER 0 33 Fewer targets (1 vs 5.1 expected) WRONG
Denzel Boston CLE 29.562 OVER 95 33 More targets (7 vs 4 expected) RIGHT
KC Concepcion CLE 35.545 OVER 28 17 Less efficient (4.7 vs 8.6 yds/tgt) WRONG
Ted Hurst III TB —38 no side 27 11 Less efficient (3.9 vs 12 yds/tgt)
Chris Godwin Jr. TB 38.543 OVER 46 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.