Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

CINCIN at HOUHOU

Reliant Stadium · closed · astroturf

CIN moneyline+124
HOU moneyline-148
SpreadHOU -3
Total45.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceHOU 69%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total51.1points, both teams
Leo marginHOU by 6.5expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Joe Burrow CIN QB1 7.133.71.11 271
C.J. Stroud HOU QB1 7.234.711 258

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Chase Brown CIN RB1 3.914.80.91 58
David Montgomery HOU RB1 3.814.60.91 56
Woody Marks HOU RB2 4.110.90.91 46
Samaje Perine CIN RB2 45.30.91 23

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Nico Collins HOU WR1 8.7911 79
Tee Higgins CIN WR1 9.76.31.11 68
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR2 5.37.81.11 46
Kayshon Boutte HOU WR3 11.12.811 32
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR2 5.85.111 30
Andrei Iosivas CIN WR3 6.13.41.11 24
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CIN This season HOU
51 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 47
51 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 46
41 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 64
46 Overall 55
QB 53 · OFF 50 · DEF 34 Last season QB 46 · OFF 45 · DEF 75

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CIN Per game, this season HOU
1.00Interceptions thrown0.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.00
0.00Fumbles lost2.00
4.00Fumbles forced1.00
4.00Takeaways1.00
1.00Giveaways2.00
+3Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CIN Offense HOU
+0.001EPA per dropback+0.016
+2.2Completion % over expected-1.7
2.7%Interception rate1.7%
4.8%Sack rate taken5.7%
+0.010Rush EPA per carry-0.047
5.1%Explosive play rate5.1%
CIN Defense HOU
+0.081EPA allowed per play-0.070
6.27Yards allowed per play5.65
4.1%Sack rate4.8%
1.0%Interception rate forced1.5%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CIN, right is HOU.

CIN This season HOU
1Games1
254Pass yards/g274
106Rush yards/g124
1Passing TD2
1Interceptions thrown0
216Pass yards allowed/g334
89Rush yards allowed/g86
0Interceptions forced0
CIN Last season HOU
249.6Pass yards/g232.5
93.6Rush yards/g108.6
36Passing TD26
17Interceptions thrown14
245.6Pass yards allowed/g200.7
147.1Rush yards allowed/g92.7

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CIN 2026

Quarterback Leo QB51

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow125/35 71.4%254254 1 / 17.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown116 563.51
Samaje Perine15 2040

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tee Higgins WR11 3/650%59 590
Ja'Marr Chase WR21 2/450%12 120
Mike Gesicki TE1 5/771.4%78 781
HOU 2026

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud126/38 68.4%274274 2 / 07.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
David Montgomery120 6032
Woody Marks19 424.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR11 7/1070%75 751
Xavier Hutchinson WR21 3/650%32 320
Dalton Schultz TE1 4/850%35 350

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CIN 2025

Quarterback Leo QB53

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Joe Burrow8173/259 66.8%1809226.1 17 / 57

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chase Brown17232 10194.46
Samaje Perine1584 3824.53

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Ja'Marr Chase WR116 125/18567.6%1412 88.38
Tee Higgins WR215 59/9860.2%846 56.411
Mike Gesicki TE12 28/4266.7%307 25.62
HOU 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
C.J. Stroud16314/502 62.5%3503218.9 21 / 137

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Woody Marks18229 8323.63
Nick Chubb17136 5684.23

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Nico Collins WR116 74/12758.3%1138 71.16
Jayden Higgins WR219 50/8261%623 32.86
Dalton Schultz TE19 87/11277.7%836 443

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

CIN 2026
  1. Mike Gesicki TE 1 0 rush · 1 rec
  2. Chase Brown RB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
HOU 2026
  1. David Montgomery RB 3 2 rush · 1 rec
  2. Nico Collins WR 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

CIN 20 – 6 HOU

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerHOU 69%—CIN wonWRONG
Total points51.145.526OVER · WRONG
MarginHOU by 6.5HOU −3CIN by 14HOU −3 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
C.J. Stroud HOU 222.5258 OVER 353 95 More attempts (55 vs 34.7 expected) RIGHT
Joe Burrow CIN 249.5271 OVER 207 64 Fewer attempts (31 vs 33.7 expected) WRONG

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
David Montgomery HOU 63.556 UNDER 10 46 Fewer carries (6 vs 14.6 expected) RIGHT
Woody Marks HOU 30.546 OVER 8 38 Less efficient (1 vs 4.1 yds/carry) WRONG
Chase Brown CIN 55.558 no side 80 22 More carries (20 vs 14.8 expected) NO LEAN
Samaje Perine CIN 16.523 OVER 6 17 Fewer carries (2 vs 5.3 expected) WRONG

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Ja'Marr Chase CIN 77.546 UNDER 75 29 More efficient (8.3 vs 5.3 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Tee Higgins CIN 55.568 OVER 95 27 More targets (10 vs 6.3 expected) RIGHT
Andrei Iosivas CIN 14.524 OVER 7 17 Fewer targets (1 vs 3.4 expected) WRONG
Xavier Hutchinson HOU 33.530 UNDER 37 7 On target WRONG
Kayshon Boutte HOU —32 no side 37 5 On target

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.