Week 3 · Sunday 13:00

CARCAR at CLECLE

Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass

CAR moneyline-135
CLE moneyline+114
SpreadCAR -2.5
Total41.5

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 3 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 2), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 27, 8:07 AM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceCAR 58%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total46points, both teams
Leo marginCAR by 3.1expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Bryce Young CAR QB1 7.733.212 243
Deshaun Watson CLE QB1 7.728.712 208

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB1 2.914.21.22 50
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB1 4.3101.12 48
Raheim Sanders CLE RB2 2.34.11.22 14
AJ Dillon CAR RB2 3.131.12 13

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Denzel Boston CLE WR1 14.26.112 82
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR2 9.17.912 69
Jalen Coker CAR WR1 10612 57
KC Concepcion CLE WR2 6.66.112 38
Xavier Legette CAR WR3 6.63.812 24
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR3 4.54.612 19
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CAR This season CLE
57 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 34
53 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 31
44 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 56
49 Overall 44
QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43 Last season QB 22 · OFF 24 · DEF 64

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CAR Per game, this season CLE
0.50Interceptions thrown0.50
1.50Interceptions caught0.50
0.50Fumbles lost0.50
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
2.50Takeaways1.50
1.00Giveaways1.00
+1.5Net turnover margin+0.5

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CAR Offense CLE
+0.072EPA per dropback-0.153
+3.3Completion % over expected-1.0
2.0%Interception rate2.8%
5.9%Sack rate taken9.5%
-0.051Rush EPA per carry-0.102
6.4%Explosive play rate4.3%
CAR Defense CLE
+0.042EPA allowed per play-0.037
5.88Yards allowed per play5.36
2.9%Sack rate4.6%
1.7%Interception rate forced1.0%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CAR, right is CLE.

CAR This season CLE
2Games2
324Pass yards/g221.5
96.5Rush yards/g65.5
6Passing TD3
1Interceptions thrown1
207Pass yards allowed/g213.5
224Rush yards allowed/g131.5
3Interceptions forced1
CAR Last season CLE
198.2Pass yards/g185.4
114.4Rush yards/g97
25Passing TD16
13Interceptions thrown18
220.1Pass yards allowed/g189.4
122.9Rush yards allowed/g116.4

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB57

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young246/73 63%648324 6 / 18.9

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chuba Hubbard222 1024.61
Jonathon Brooks29 303.30

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jalen Coker WR12 16/1888.9%204 1022
Tetairoa McMillan WR22 10/1855.6%176 880
Tommy Tremble TE2 4/757.1%29 14.50
CLE 2026

Quarterback Leo QB34

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Deshaun Watson240/52 76.9%443221.5 3 / 18.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins224 542.30
Raheim Sanders23 51.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Denzel Boston WR12 7/1163.6%154 772
KC Concepcion WR22 10/1190.9%71 35.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE2 7/977.8%75 37.50

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young17325/518 62.7%3275192.6 24 / 126.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rico Dowdle18241 10854.56
Chuba Hubbard16147 5573.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR118 75/12958.1%1095 60.87
Xavier Legette WR216 36/6852.9%371 23.23
Tommy Tremble TE16 30/4075%271 16.92
CLE 2025

Quarterback Leo QB22

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Shedeur Sanders8120/212 56.6%1400175 7 / 106.6

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Quinshon Judkins14230 8273.67
Dylan Sampson1565 1752.70

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jerry Jeudy WR117 50/10647.2%602 35.42
Isaiah Bond WR215 18/4440.9%338 22.50
Harold Fannin Jr. TE16 72/10767.3%731 45.76

Touchdown props

Leo’s chance that each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown in this game, the three most likely on each side, from its last read before kickoff.

Most likely to score: Denzel Boston (CLE, 40%) and Jalen Coker (CAR, 40%). In 2023 to 2025, Leo’s top pick in a game scored 47% of the time, and at least one of its top two scored 69% of the time.
CAR Leo’s chance
  1. Jalen Coker WR1 40% no TD
  2. Chuba Hubbard RB1 25% no TD
  3. Tetairoa McMillan WR2 22% no TD
CLE Leo’s chance
  1. Denzel Boston WR1 40% no TD
  2. Quinshon Judkins RB1 30% no TD
  3. Raheim Sanders RB2 22% no TD

Final result

CAR 18 – 21 CLE

How the game was played

Quarterback, the backs who carried it and the receivers who caught it.

CAR
Bryce Young QB 26/48291 yds1 TD1 INT
Chuba Hubbard RB 19 car82 yds0 TD4 rec, 28 yds
AJ Dillon RB 4 car16 yds0 TD1 rec, -2 yds
Brycen Tremayne WR 4/683 yds0 TD
Darren Waller TE 5/851 yds0 TD
Tommy Tremble TE 3/441 yds0 TD
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB 16/30144 yds2 TD0 INT
Quinshon Judkins RB 18 car70 yds0 TD2 rec, 9 yds
Raheim Sanders RB 1 car17 yds0 TD4 rec, 34 yds
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 7/951 yds2 TD
Denzel Boston WR 2/441 yds0 TD
Raheim Sanders RB 4/534 yds0 TD

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerCAR 58%—CLE wonNO PICK
Total points4642.539OVER · WRONG
MarginCAR by 3.1CAR −1.5CLE by 3CAR −1.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Deshaun Watson CLE 187.5208 OVER 144 64 Less efficient (4.8 vs 7.7 yds/att) WRONG
Bryce Young CAR 223.5243 OVER 291 48 More attempts (48 vs 33.2 expected) RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Chuba Hubbard CAR 68.548 UNDER 82 34 More carries (19 vs 10 expected) WRONG
Quinshon Judkins CLE 60.550 UNDER 70 20 More efficient (3.9 vs 2.9 yds/carry) WRONG
AJ Dillon CAR 13.513 no side 16 3 On target NO LEAN
Raheim Sanders CLE 9.514 OVER 17 3 On target RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Tetairoa McMillan CAR 64.569 OVER 17 52 Less efficient (3.4 vs 9.1 yds/tgt) WRONG
Denzel Boston CLE 47.582 OVER 41 41 Fewer targets (4 vs 6.1 expected) WRONG
Jalen Coker CAR 58.557 no side 18 39 Less efficient (4.5 vs 10 yds/tgt) NO LEAN
KC Concepcion CLE 33.538 OVER 9 29 Less efficient (1 vs 6.6 yds/tgt) WRONG

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.