Week 2 · Sunday 13:00

CARCAR at ATLATL

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf · Division game

CAR moneyline-155
ATL moneyline+130
SpreadCAR -2.5
Total43.5

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Every game this week on Leo’s Week 2 card →

This is a pre-game analysis page. Every stat above the Final result comes from games played before this one (through Week 1), and Leo’s numbers were frozen before kickoff. Market numbers are the closing line. Nothing here is a wager — the pick gate stays closed until Leo shows it can beat that line.

Leo’s read

What the model expected, frozen before kickoff (Sep 20, 12:36 PM ET). Each player projection is rate × volume × opponent adjustment — the columns show every input. None of this is a wager.

Leo win chanceATL 69%chance to win; information, not a pick
Leo total49points, both teams
Leo marginATL by 6.6expected winning margin

Passing yards

Playeryds/attattopp adjgamesLeo
Bryce Young CAR QB1 833.711 277
Cooper Rush ATL QB1 5.317.511 106

Rushing yards

Playeryds/carrycaropp adjgamesLeo
Bijan Robinson ATL RB1 4.418.91.21 99
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB1 4.49.60.91 41
Brian Robinson ATL RB2 3.771.21 33
AJ Dillon CAR RB2 4.73.50.91 18

Receiving yards

Playeryds/tgttgtopp adjgamesLeo
Jalen Coker CAR WR1 12.16.811 83
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR2 97.611 69
Drake London ATL WR1 7.76.711 54
Jahan Dotson ATL WR2 6.22.711 18
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR3 4.72.711 14
Xavier Legette CAR WR3 2.53.111 9
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Leo ratings — head to head

Each rating is 0–100 against the league this season, built from efficiency rather than record: 50 is average, every 15 points is one standard deviation. These describe the teams — they are not used to price the game.

CAR This season ATL
52 QuarterbackEPA, accuracy, giveaways 33
50 Offenseefficiency, explosives, ball security 41
31 DefenseEPA allowed, pressure, takeaways 61
41 Overall 51
QB 46 · OFF 43 · DEF 43 Last season QB 47 · OFF 49 · DEF 57

The turnover battle

Interceptions thrown against interceptions caught, and the same for fumbles. Bold is the better side of each line.

CAR Per game, this season ATL
1.00Interceptions thrown2.00
0.00Interceptions caught0.00
1.00Fumbles lost0.00
1.00Fumbles forced1.00
1.00Takeaways1.00
2.00Giveaways2.00
-1Net turnover margin-1

Efficiency detail

The inputs behind the ratings above, shown raw so you can check the work.

CAR Offense ATL
+0.027EPA per dropback-0.115
+1.7Completion % over expected-4.6
2.4%Interception rate3.0%
6.0%Sack rate taken6.7%
-0.015Rush EPA per carry-0.049
6.0%Explosive play rate5.7%
CAR Defense ATL
+0.140EPA allowed per play-0.051
6.14Yards allowed per play5.37
2.9%Sack rate5.0%
1.2%Interception rate forced1.2%

Team comparison

Season totals on both sides of the ball. Left column is CAR, right is ATL.

CAR This season ATL
1Games1
361Pass yards/g143
125Rush yards/g120
3Passing TD1
1Interceptions thrown2
269Pass yards allowed/g221
291Rush yards allowed/g58
0Interceptions forced0
CAR Last season ATL
198.2Pass yards/g217.8
114.4Rush yards/g125.8
25Passing TD19
13Interceptions thrown8
220.1Pass yards allowed/g221.9
122.9Rush yards allowed/g126.2

This season

Starting quarterback, lead backs and top receivers, by actual usage this season — games before this one only.

CAR 2026

Quarterback Leo QB52

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young123/37 62.2%361361 3 / 19.8

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Chuba Hubbard110 494.91
AJ Dillon15 285.60

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Jalen Coker WR11 8/988.9%138 1382
Tetairoa McMillan WR21 5/862.5%75 750
Tommy Tremble TE1 3/560%25 250
ATL 2026

Quarterback Leo QB33

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Cooper Rush112/22 54.5%143143 1 / 26.5

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson121 8340
Brian Robinson19 313.40

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR11 2/450%29 290
Jahan Dotson WR21 1/333.3%19 190
Kyle Pitts TE1 0/10%0 00

Last season

The same players' full prior season, for a baseline the early-season sample cannot give you.

CAR 2025

Quarterback Leo QB46

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Bryce Young17325/518 62.7%3275192.6 24 / 126.3

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Rico Dowdle18241 10854.56
Chuba Hubbard16147 5573.83

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Tetairoa McMillan WR118 75/12958.1%1095 60.87
Xavier Legette WR216 36/6852.9%371 23.23
Tommy Tremble TE16 30/4075%271 16.92
ATL 2025

Quarterback Leo QB47

PlayerGC/ATTComp%YardsY/GTD/INTY/A
Michael Penix Jr.9166/276 60.1%1982220.2 9 / 37.2

Running back

PlayerGCarYardsY/CTD
Bijan Robinson17287 14785.17
Tyler Allgeier17143 5143.68

Receivers

PlayerGRec/TgtCatch%YardsY/GTD
Drake London WR112 68/11260.7%919 76.67
Darnell Mooney WR215 32/7244.4%443 29.51
Kyle Pitts TE17 88/11874.6%928 54.65

Touchdown leaders

Top three scrimmage touchdown scorers on each side this season, rushing and receiving.

CAR 2026
  1. Chuba Hubbard RB 2 1 rush · 1 rec
  2. Jalen Coker WR 2 0 rush · 2 rec
  3. Bryce Young QB 1 1 rush · 0 rec
ATL 2026
  1. Bijan Robinson RB 1 0 rush · 1 rec

Final result

CAR 34 – 3 ATL

How Leo’s read held up

What Leo expected before kickoff, the posted number he was calling against, and what happened. A winner call is only made when one side is above 60%; a yardage or points call needs a real gap from the line before Leo takes a side.

MarketLeo expectedLineActualLeo’s side and result
WinnerATL 69%—CAR wonWRONG
Total points4943.537OVER · WRONG
MarginATL by 6.6CAR −2.5CAR by 31ATL +2.5 · WRONG

“Main reason” names which of Leo’s two inputs was further off — how much the player was used, or how efficient he was when he was.

Passing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Cooper Rush ATL 182.5106 UNDER 86 20 Less efficient (5.1 vs 5.3 yds/att) RIGHT
Bryce Young CAR 221.5277 OVER 287 10 On target RIGHT

Rushing yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Bijan Robinson ATL 83.599 OVER 72 27 Fewer carries (16 vs 18.9 expected) WRONG
AJ Dillon CAR —18 no side -3 21 Less efficient (-1 vs 4.7 yds/carry)
Brian Robinson ATL 25.533 OVER 51 18 More carries (11 vs 7 expected) RIGHT
Chuba Hubbard CAR 56.541 UNDER 53 12 More carries (12 vs 9.6 expected) RIGHT

Receiving yards

PlayerLineLeoSideActualOff byMain reasonResult
Xavier Legette CAR 15.59 UNDER 64 55 More efficient (16 vs 2.5 yds/tgt) WRONG
Tetairoa McMillan CAR 58.569 OVER 101 32 More targets (10 vs 7.6 expected) RIGHT
Jalen Coker CAR 50.583 OVER 66 17 Less efficient (7.3 vs 12.1 yds/tgt) RIGHT
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL 8.514 OVER 3 11 Less efficient (1 vs 4.7 yds/tgt) WRONG
Jahan Dotson ATL 17.518 no side 11 7 On target NO LEAN
Drake London ATL 57.554 UNDER 51 3 On target RIGHT

Player and team statistics from the open nflverse dataset. Roles assigned by actual usage — most attempts, carries and targets — not depth chart.